The gaming community in the U.S. has been on a roller coaster of emotions this week, starting with the full reveal of the Nintendo Switch 2, complete with an array of new games. However, the excitement quickly turned to concern with the announcement of a $450 price tag for the console and $80 for Mario Kart Tour. The situation escalated further when Nintendo decided to delay pre-orders, citing the need to assess the impact of the Trump Administration's sweeping new tariffs on global trade.
We've previously discussed the reasons behind the high cost of the Nintendo Switch 2 and the potential impact of these tariffs on the gaming industry as a whole. However, the burning question on everyone's mind now is: what will Nintendo do next? Will the Nintendo Switch 2 become even pricier when pre-orders finally open?
Typically, when faced with questions about the future of video games, I consult a panel of expert industry analysts. While they can't predict the future with certainty, they usually provide a well-informed consensus based on evidence and data. This week, I've already done this twice. However, for the first time since I began these discussions, every analyst I spoke with was stumped by the current situation. Their responses were filled with guesses and caveats, emphasizing the unprecedented chaos and the inability to predict the actions of Nintendo, the Trump Administration, or any other stakeholders in the near future.
Despite this uncertainty, here's a summary of the insights I gathered from the analysts:
Sky-High Switch
The analysts were divided on the potential price adjustments for the Nintendo Switch 2. Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of Kantan Games, initially believed it was too late for Nintendo to raise prices after the initial announcement. However, the delay in pre-orders has led him to change his stance. He now believes Nintendo may have no choice but to increase prices for the system, games, and accessories due to the high tariffs. "It is very difficult to predict, but Nintendo will likely take a few days to run simulations and then announce hikes, not only for the system itself but also games and accessories," he said. "I hope I am wrong, but if sustained, these sky-high tariffs leave them no choice. Would you be surprised now to see Switch 2 hit US$500 for the base model? I wouldn't."
Dr. Toto also questioned Nintendo's timing in announcing the pricing before the U.S. resolved its tariff issues. "Why on earth did Nintendo not wait for the US to fix their tariffs first and then decide on pricing during a Direct a few days later? This made no sense."
Mat Piscatella, senior analyst at Circana, echoed the sentiment that the tariffs' breadth and depth were unexpected, affecting not just consumers but also businesses like Nintendo. He suggested that Nintendo likely factored in some tariff assumptions when setting the initial price, but the actual tariffs were much higher than anticipated. "Every reasonable and responsible business that relies on international supply chains will be reevaluating its US consumer pricing at this point. They have to," he stated.
Piscatella highlighted that the U.S. could join regions with historically higher video game prices due to these tariffs. "The haphazard and chaotic nature of the tariffs and their announcement obviously has many scrambling to navigate the fallout."
Manu Rosier, director of market analysis at Newzoo, predicted that hardware prices would increase due to tariffs, while software might be less affected thanks to the growing dominance of digital distribution. "While physical versions might be subject to tariffs, the growing dominance and lower cost of digital distribution would likely limit any broader effect," he said. However, he noted that a significant tariff increase could lead companies like Nintendo to pass the additional costs onto consumers.
Holding the Line
On the other hand, some analysts believe Nintendo will strive to maintain the announced price. Joost van Dreunen, NYU Stern professor and author of SuperJoost Playlist, acknowledged that a price increase is possible, especially with high tariffs on Vietnam. However, he believes Nintendo has already factored in geopolitical risks in setting the $449.99 price. "I believe the volatility from the Trump tariffs was already considered in the Switch 2's $449.99 pricing," he said. "Given the first Trump administration's impact, Nintendo, like other manufacturers, has since restructured its supply chain to mitigate such geopolitical risks."
Van Dreunen suggested that Nintendo aims to keep the price at $449.99, but external pressures might force a reassessment if the trade situation worsens. "Nevertheless, the unpredictable nature of these tariff decisions—exemplified by the recent situation in Vietnam—injects a significant amount of uncertainty into the market. This could compel Nintendo to find ways to absorb or offset additional costs, especially when initial product margins are typically narrower."
Piers Harding-Rolls, games researcher at Ampere Analysis, agreed, noting the risk of consumer backlash if prices are raised further. "The extent of the tariffs and its impact on Vietnamese exports are really bad news for Nintendo," he said. "The company is now in between a rock and a hard place, having already announced the launch price. I have already suggested that the pricing would stay as announced until 2026 at the earliest but then might be adjusted if the tariffs stay in place."
Harding-Rolls believes the delay in pre-orders is a strategic move by Nintendo to buy time and hope for a resolution to the tariff issue. "This is a pretty fluid situation after all. Nintendo will not want to change the price having announced it, but I think everything is on the table now. If the pricing does change, it will impact the brand and the US consumer’s view of the product at launch. I don’t think that will put off loyal fans, but it might put off broader consumers who will take a wait-and-see approach. That’s particularly important during its first holiday season."
Living in Unhinged Times
Rhys Elliott, games analyst at Alinea Analytics, predicted higher prices for both Nintendo hardware and software due to the tariffs. He referenced his previous comments about Nintendo offering cheaper digital editions in certain markets as a strategy to encourage digital purchases. "It seems the lower prices in other markets were to nudge Switch 2 buyers to digital, as I mentioned my comments to IGN about Mario Kart World’s pricing. Nintendo might have wanted to do something similar in the US, but the tariff situation is so chaotic that Nintendo was in 'wait and see' mode—and decided to hedge its bets to see if it needed to offset the tariffs."
Elliott painted a grim picture of the broader impact of the tariffs on the gaming industry, aligning with warnings from the Entertainment Software Association. He suggested that the tariffs would lead to a "weaker, poorer nation," with consumers ultimately bearing the cost. "Some manufacturers – Nintendo included – have been shifting their manufacturing to non-tariff-impacted markets," he said. "And even if companies can afford to switch up (no pun intended!) their supply chains, who knows which markets will get tariffs next – as recent news supports."
Elliott criticized the tariffs as harmful to consumers and the gaming industry, driven by what he described as "unhinged times driven by an unhinged man (and other forces)." He argued that such policies, which raise prices during a cost-of-living crisis, are detrimental to gamers and the broader economy. "These extreme tariffs will also be bad for consumers in the US but are positive for the US administration’s populist façade. Policies that lead to higher prices for everyday people amid a cost-of-living crisis are deplorable. They're bad for gamers and the games business."
Elliott also highlighted the economic principles of comparative advantage, which suggest that tariffs harm the economy by disrupting efficient trade practices. "Time and time again, data has shown that tariffs harm the economy. Comparative advantage is a core principle of international trade theory. Basically, consumption and economic well-being are stronger when countries focus on producing goods they can efficiently produce (at the lowest cost compared to other goods) –and trade for goods they are less efficient at producing. The trade war flies in the face of these core economic principles."
Nintendo Switch 2 System and Accessories Gallery
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