Despite not yet being released, DFC Intelligence, a video game market research firm, projects Nintendo's Switch 2 to be the best-selling next-gen console. Their 2024 Video Game Market Report and Forecast, released December 17th, predicts sales exceeding 15-17 million units in 2025 and over 80 million by 2028. This makes Nintendo the projected "clear winner" and "console market leader."
This success is attributed to the Switch 2's anticipated early 2025 release and limited initial competition. The report suggests Nintendo might face manufacturing challenges due to high demand.
While Sony and Microsoft are reportedly developing handheld consoles, these remain largely conceptual. DFC Intelligence anticipates new consoles from these companies by 2028, leaving a significant window for Switch 2 dominance. The report suggests only one of these post-Switch 2 consoles will achieve substantial success, potentially a hypothetical "PS6," leveraging PlayStation's established fanbase and strong intellectual properties.
Nintendo's success is further underscored by Circana's (formerly NPD) data showing the Switch surpassing PlayStation 2 lifetime US sales, reaching the second highest all-time sales for a video game console in the US, behind only the Nintendo DS. This is notable despite a reported 3% year-over-year sales decline.
DFC Intelligence's report also paints a positive outlook for the video game industry as a whole. After a two-year slump, the industry is projected to experience healthy growth through the end of the decade, with 2025 anticipated as a particularly strong year. This resurgence is partly fueled by the Switch 2 and the release of Grand Theft Auto VI, expected to significantly boost sales. The global gaming audience is projected to surpass 4 billion players by 2027, driven by the accessibility of handheld gaming and the growth of esports and gaming influencers. This increased engagement is also boosting hardware sales across PCs and consoles.
